Housing Bubble
Florida Home Sales Stay on the Upswing says Florida Association of Realtors
Riding a wave of strong sales all year, Florida's existing home market ended 2002 still on the upswing: a positive trend that industry experts predict will carry over into 2003. By year's end, Florida experienced a 10 percent increase in the number of existing single-family homes sold, according to the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). In total, 154,231 homes changed hands during 2002 compared to the 140,364 homes sold the year before. And the prices of those homes keep steadily climbing. Statewide, the median sales price rose 9 percent to reach $137,800; in 2001, it was $126,600. In 1997, Florida's median sales price was $95,800, resulting in a 43.8 percent gain over the five-year period.
In 2002, the average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.54 percent, a drop from the 6.97 percent average for 2001. FAR's sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
"It has been a phenomenal year for sales in 2002," says Tom Salomone, 2003 FAR president and broker/owner of Real Estate II Inc. with offices in Coral Springs, Margate and Boynton Beach. "Home prices have gone up consistently in markets across the state. It's all part of supply and demand economics. The quality of life in Florida continues to draw a steady influx of new residents; in fact, research shows that about 1,000 people a day are moving into the state.
"The demographics indicate that Florida's population is going to increase by about a third over the next 10 years, from about 16 million to around 19 to 20 million," he adds. "That means for the foreseeable future, there will be no downturn in the housing market at all. Interest rates are continuing to stay at record lows -- all indications are that 2003 should be another banner year for real estate in Florida."
Hank Fishkind, Ph.D., economist and president of Fishkind & Associates, an Orlando-based consulting firm specializing in real estate analysis, agrees.
"In a year of recession for most of the nation, that we could have record levels of existing single-family home sales, of new home sales and housing starts -- all across the board -- is amazing," he notes. "What's important about this is it makes the future very bright for us here in Florida. When housing markets are strong in the places where people live, it means they're able to sell their homes and make that move to Florida. And there's a lag in the time between when people decide to sell their home in Akron or Toledo or Chicago and when they arrive in Florida, ready to buy homes here. So, we should see another six months of extraordinary housing market activity continuing into 2003."
Among the state's larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), Orlando reported the most homes sold in 2002 compared to the previous year. With a total of 27,548 homes changing hands in 2002, the figure was 11 percent higher than the area's 2001 sales activity, when 24,911 homes sold. The median sales price rose 8 percent to $129,800; the year before, it was $120,100.
Other large Florida MSAs reporting higher sales in 2002 compared to a year ago include: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, where 15,813 homes sold for a 9 percent gain; Fort Lauderdale, where 14,465 homes changed hands for a 10 percent increase; and Jacksonville, where 14,052 homes sold for an 11 percent gain. The median sales price also rose in those markets in 2002: in Fort Lauderdale, 16 percent to $197,400; in Jacksonville, 7 percent to $124,800; and in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, 6 percent to $132,100.
In the smaller markets, the Naples MSA reported 3,976 homes changed hands during 2002, a 20 percent boost over the 3,315 homes sold the previous year. The median sales price rose 12 percent to $265,800; the year before, it was $237,500.
Among the state's smaller markets, others reporting increases in home resales for 2002 compared to the previous year include: Gainesville, where 2,327 homes sold for a 20 percent gain; and Pensacola, where 4,553 homes sold for a 16 percent increase. The markets' median sales price also rose in 2002: in Gainesville, 10 percent to $130,000; and in Pensacola, 6 percent to $111,400.
The following chart compares the number of existing, single-family home sales and median sales prices, based on Realtor transactions during 2002 and 2001. The median sales price is the midpoint in the price range - half the homes sold for more, half sold for less.
Florida Sales Report - Year End 2002
Single-Family, Existing Homes
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Statewide &
Metropolitan
Statistical
Areas Year End Year End % Year End Year End %
(MSAs) 2002 2001 Chge 2002 2001 Chge
STATEWIDE 154,231 140,364 10% $137,800 $126,600 9%
Daytona Beach (1) 7,842 6,931 13 $110,400 $97,600 13
Fort Lauderdale 14,465 13,158 10 $197,400 $170,600 16
Fort Myers-Cape
Coral 7,606 6,769 12 $140,400 $129,900 8
Fort Pierce-Port
St. Lucie 5,376 5,012 7 $128,300 $108,200 19
Fort Walton Beach 3,312 2,990 11 $139,600 $128,300 9
Gainesville (2) 2,327 1,932 20 $130,000 $118,500 10
Jacksonville 14,052 12,679 11 $124,800 $116,700 7
Lakeland-Winter
Haven 4,758 4,519 5 $89,100 $84,200 6
Melbourne-
Titusville-
Palm Bay 5,796 5,213 11 $116,100 $99,400 17
Miami 12,342 11,491 7 $184,700 $159,600 16
Naples 3,976 3,315 20 $265,800 $237,500 12
Ocala (3) 3,766 3,077 22 $87,700 $87,500 --
Orlando 27,548 24,911 11 $129,800 $120,100 8
Panama City 1,874 1,767 6 $122,100 $112,900 8
Pensacola 4,553 3,935 16 $111,400 $105,500 6
Punta Gorda 1,786 1,807 -1 $121,200 $101,700 19
Sarasota-
Bradenton (4) 7,519 6,998 7 $165,900 $151,500 10
Tallahassee 2,834 2,751 3 $136,900 $129,700 6
Tampa-
St. Petersburg-
Clearwater (5) 15,813 14,518 9 $132,100 $124,400 6
West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton (6) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(1) Data for December for Daytona Beach was not available.
(2) December data for Gainesville was not available.
(3) Data for Ocala, January-March, was not available.
(4) Data for Englewood was not available.
(5) December data for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA was not
available.
(6) Data for West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA was not available.
Source: Florida Association of Realtors and the University of Florida Real Estate Research Center
